Are They Trying to Make Us Complacent?

News items from the day:

-The RNC, who because of McCain's accepting public financing is doing most of the spending for the GOP, is spending money in West Virginia (Bush+13) and Montana (Bush+20). There is no chance, none, that this can be explained as anything other than an attempt to avoid a BLOWOUT. Like, before Obama wins West Virginia or Montana, he's going to win Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Missouri and Indiana. Their apparent goal in spending in these states is to lose 375-163 instead of 383-155. Clearly, their goal is to make everyone think they're giving up, only to hope that it rains or something in all those above states and we, out of complacency, decide to not bother voting. I mean, they're desperate to avoid 60 Democratic Senators, and it sure seems like Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) or Roger Wicker (R-MS) would be a better use of that money than making a huge blowout into a not-quite-so-huge blowout.

-The McCain campaign continues to implode. A McCain advisor called Palin a "whack job". Senior McCain aide Douglas Holtz-Eakin asked, re: McCain's health plan, "Why would they [younger workers] leave [their employers' health plan]? What they are getting from their employer is way better than what they could get with the credit." I'm almost thinking they want us to quit advocating for Obama, since they're doing such a good job of doing it themselves.

I, I just can't believe it's even possible that Obama isn't going to win by a lot. But we must turn to the Simpsons for a lesson about complacency. Remember when Bart ran for class president against Martin? He had the support of a vast majority of the class, but everyone was having too much fun at Bart's victory party to actually vote, so Martin's own vote (along with that kid who throws up all the time whose name I can't remember. I am shamed) carried the underdog to victory. So, especially since most of my readers live in OH, PA and WV, please get out there and vote! Maybe even knock on some doors. At least make sure your family members and friends go to the polls. It's important!

Reconsidering McCain's Strategy

After attacking McCain's campaign strategy in a recent post, I have reconsidered. It turns out that Palin was not, in fact, going to campaign in West Virginia, which would have been a ridiculous decision, because if he might lose West Virginia, he's certainly lost the election. She was just landing in WV and then campaigning in Ohio, which makes much more sense.

But it also does make sense for McCain to campaign in states like Iowa. As it stands now, McCain is going to get crushed. Just utterly obliterated. He'll make Bob Dole look like Samuel Tilden. There is not nearly enough time before Election Day for McCain to fight back to a tie state-by-state. It's going to take a huge event, like Obama calling McCain a cracker tomorrow night or an al Qaeda attack, for McCain to get close to reversing the 8 point deficit he faces right now; campaigning in Iowa instead of North Carolina or vice versa isn't going to win him the election. But if every states moves 6 or 7 points to the GOP, then it's states like PA, VA, and IA which are going to decide the election. There is absolutely no scenario in which North Carolina is going to be where the election is won or lost, because if North Carolina is close, McCain's lost Ohio, Virginia, and a bunch of other battleground states that are more blue than North Carolina.