Herman Cain suspended his campaign today. He said "suspended" so he can continue to raise money, but he's done. He says he will endorse a candidate "in the near future". Based on his recent appearance with Newt Gingrich at a "debate", as well as Newt's current status as frontrunner, makes Newt most likely to pick up a few more percentage points as a result of today's announcement.
He'll also become more likely to beat Romney. Cain being out of the running means the "anti-Romney" vote is split one fewer way, meaning Romney's amazingly-stable 20-25% in the polls less likely to hold up.
Showing posts with label Herman Cain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Herman Cain. Show all posts
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Maybe Herman Cain's just clueless
Herman Cain's been getting a lot of shit from me recently. I think it's mostly justified, as his policies would be terrible for the nation. But it's becoming increasingly clear the more I hear him in interviews and debates that the man just has no idea what he's talking about. A sampling;
-His previously-discussed ignorance of the Palestinian Right of Return, a fairly major element in the Israel-Palestine conflict.
-His ignorance of neoconservatism, the dominant foreign policy idea in the Republican Party in the past 15 years.
-His proud ignorance of details of foreign countries and foreign leaders; "Uzbeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan".
-Most damning are his fumbles of questions on abortion, a topic he should be strong on given the prominent role it played in his 2004 run for Senate. In an interview with John Stossel about 3 months ago, Cain gives completely contradictory answers in back to back sentences. The clip really is worth watching; it's just over a minute, and the other guest's response to Cain's literally-jaw-dropping answer is worth the price of admission.
-On Meet the Press, he said he did not support abortion under any circumstances but then said abortion in the case of a threat to the life of the mother would have to be made by the family. Not as self-contradictory as the Stossel interview, but not crystal clear either.
-He further muddied the waters on his abortion stance in an interview with Piers Morgan, where he again seemed to indicate it wasn't the government's role to make the choice on abortion.
What concerns me most about the repeated poor responses on abortion is that neither the candidate nor his team thought to tighten up the answers. After the Stossel interview months ago, an intelligent/savvy politician would have spent some time to figure out a way to clearly convey his stance on this issue, which is a particularly important one in Iowa and throughout a Republican primary.
Republican voters should be hopeful that Cain's campaign mirrors that of Ross Perot. By making tax reform a central issue in his campaign, he is influencing the debate, just like Perot did in '92 on deficit and spending issues. But should Cain's lead in the polls carry him to the nomination, I'm supremely confident of four more years for Obama, and likely big gains in Congress as well.
-His previously-discussed ignorance of the Palestinian Right of Return, a fairly major element in the Israel-Palestine conflict.
-His ignorance of neoconservatism, the dominant foreign policy idea in the Republican Party in the past 15 years.
-His proud ignorance of details of foreign countries and foreign leaders; "Uzbeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan".
-Most damning are his fumbles of questions on abortion, a topic he should be strong on given the prominent role it played in his 2004 run for Senate. In an interview with John Stossel about 3 months ago, Cain gives completely contradictory answers in back to back sentences. The clip really is worth watching; it's just over a minute, and the other guest's response to Cain's literally-jaw-dropping answer is worth the price of admission.
-On Meet the Press, he said he did not support abortion under any circumstances but then said abortion in the case of a threat to the life of the mother would have to be made by the family. Not as self-contradictory as the Stossel interview, but not crystal clear either.
-He further muddied the waters on his abortion stance in an interview with Piers Morgan, where he again seemed to indicate it wasn't the government's role to make the choice on abortion.
What concerns me most about the repeated poor responses on abortion is that neither the candidate nor his team thought to tighten up the answers. After the Stossel interview months ago, an intelligent/savvy politician would have spent some time to figure out a way to clearly convey his stance on this issue, which is a particularly important one in Iowa and throughout a Republican primary.
Republican voters should be hopeful that Cain's campaign mirrors that of Ross Perot. By making tax reform a central issue in his campaign, he is influencing the debate, just like Perot did in '92 on deficit and spending issues. But should Cain's lead in the polls carry him to the nomination, I'm supremely confident of four more years for Obama, and likely big gains in Congress as well.
Friday, October 21, 2011
Herman Cain thinks he's helping poor people
Today's Herman Cain news is that he says "if you are at or below the poverty level, your plan isn't 9-9-9. It's 9-0-9." Then, being the fucking asshole that he is, he follows that up with "Say Amen, y'all", as if to put an exclamation point on the tremendous gift he's given the poor among us. The middle number is the income tax, so people in poverty are excused from that portion.
So, let's fire up the arithmetic machine and see what effect 9-9-9 would have on the average family of 4 living at the poverty line. For a family of four, the poverty line is at $22,050, so let's look at a family making $22,000 a year. Sneak preview, they will be $6,878* worse off should 9-9-9 (which is 9-0-9 for them) come to pass:
-McDonald's has to pay 7.65% in payroll taxes, so they have to spend $23,683 to hire a worker with a $22,000 salary, with the extra $1,683 going to Uncle Sam
-The family also must pay 7.65% in payroll taxes, so there goes another $1,683
-The standard deduction for a married couple is $11,400, dropping their taxable income to $10,600
-The personal exemption ($3,650 per family member) drops their taxable income to $0
-As you might expect, this drops their owed income tax to $0
-Not only do they not owe any income taxes, they get additional, refundable credits, including:
So the family's total tax bill would be $1,683 in payroll taxes, plus $1,683 that their employer pays. They get a credit of $6,334. So their personal tax bill is currently a net credit of $4,651, or $2,968 when you include the employer's portion, which you should.
Now President Cain institutes 9-9-9 (or 9-0-9 for the poor). In the process, he completely eliminates the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Child Tax Credit. Here's the math:
-McDonald's is still willing to spend $23,683 to employ the family's breadwinner ($22,000 + employer's contribution toward Social Security and Medicare)
-Under Cain's plan, McDonald's has to pay a 9% tax on that money, reducing the gross pay of the family to $21,551, since 9% is more than 7.65%, with the other $2,132 going to Uncle Sam.
-The family will, according to the Consumer Expenditure Survey, be expected to spend even more than their income (i.e., go into debt) every year. Let's assume they just spend their income.
-If you were to spend $21,551 including a 9% sales tax, you'd spend $19,772 on stuff and $1,779 in taxes.
So our family pays $1,779 in direct taxes, or $3,910 if you include the employer's portion, which you should.
Herman Cain's 9-9-9 plan, even with the 9-0-9 change, changes the tax bill for a family in povery from a $2,968 credit to a $3,910 liability. This is $6,878 less that a family already IN POVERTY would have every year if Cain's plan becomes the law of the land.
Say Amen to that, you fucking asshole
(*an earlier version of these calculations used a wrong poverty threshold, which was taken from Herman Cain's website (.pdf, table 6). Serves me right for taking numbers from a source I spend the entire post attempting to rip to shreds.)
So, let's fire up the arithmetic machine and see what effect 9-9-9 would have on the average family of 4 living at the poverty line. For a family of four, the poverty line is at $22,050, so let's look at a family making $22,000 a year. Sneak preview, they will be $6,878* worse off should 9-9-9 (which is 9-0-9 for them) come to pass:
-McDonald's has to pay 7.65% in payroll taxes, so they have to spend $23,683 to hire a worker with a $22,000 salary, with the extra $1,683 going to Uncle Sam
-The family also must pay 7.65% in payroll taxes, so there goes another $1,683
-The standard deduction for a married couple is $11,400, dropping their taxable income to $10,600
-The personal exemption ($3,650 per family member) drops their taxable income to $0
-As you might expect, this drops their owed income tax to $0
-Not only do they not owe any income taxes, they get additional, refundable credits, including:
-Earned Income Tax Credit (.pdf, Page 46): For a family of 4 making $22,000, they would get a tax credit of $4,917. This credit is refundable (i.e., they get a check from the government for $4,917 every year
-Child Tax Credit: Under current law, after the stimulus peters out, our family would get a $1,417 refundable tax credit (it'd be $2,000 today)
So the family's total tax bill would be $1,683 in payroll taxes, plus $1,683 that their employer pays. They get a credit of $6,334. So their personal tax bill is currently a net credit of $4,651, or $2,968 when you include the employer's portion, which you should.
Now President Cain institutes 9-9-9 (or 9-0-9 for the poor). In the process, he completely eliminates the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Child Tax Credit. Here's the math:
-McDonald's is still willing to spend $23,683 to employ the family's breadwinner ($22,000 + employer's contribution toward Social Security and Medicare)
-Under Cain's plan, McDonald's has to pay a 9% tax on that money, reducing the gross pay of the family to $21,551, since 9% is more than 7.65%, with the other $2,132 going to Uncle Sam.
-The family will, according to the Consumer Expenditure Survey, be expected to spend even more than their income (i.e., go into debt) every year. Let's assume they just spend their income.
-If you were to spend $21,551 including a 9% sales tax, you'd spend $19,772 on stuff and $1,779 in taxes.
So our family pays $1,779 in direct taxes, or $3,910 if you include the employer's portion, which you should.
Herman Cain's 9-9-9 plan, even with the 9-0-9 change, changes the tax bill for a family in povery from a $2,968 credit to a $3,910 liability. This is $6,878 less that a family already IN POVERTY would have every year if Cain's plan becomes the law of the land.
Say Amen to that, you fucking asshole
(*an earlier version of these calculations used a wrong poverty threshold, which was taken from Herman Cain's website (.pdf, table 6). Serves me right for taking numbers from a source I spend the entire post attempting to rip to shreds.)
Fun with Math, or, Herman Cain is a Fucking Asshole, Part 2
In Part 1, I showed my work behind my assertion that Herman Cain's plan would be terrible for the average American family. While I have endeavored to do the same for a family making $1,000,000/year, the accounting is frankly beyond my meager abilities. So here's a graph from The Washington Post that quite succinctly sums up the relative effects of Cain's plan on the Rich and everyone else. It's worth the click, I promise...
note: the difference between the effect on the middle 20% and my calculation Part 1 relates to my effort to include the poverty exemption that Cain's website mentions.
So how on Earth could Cain ever expect to get elected and get this thing passed? The answer appears to be through flat-out lying to voters. In this interview with MSNBC last week, at the 2:00 mark, Cain discussed the tax situation of a family of four making $50,000/year. He states:
Cain: Today, under the current system, they will pay over $10,000 in taxes,
assuming standard deductions and standard exemptions. I've gone through the math. $10,000
In Part 1, I showed that their tax bill, including the employer's Social Security/Medicare contributions, would be $8,416. So, how does he arrive at "over $10,000"? By leaving out the child tax credit, which is $1,000 per kid, or, for a family of four, $2,000 for two kids. This credit, which goes away under 9-9-9, accounts for much of the hit that middle-class families will take if Cain's plan is ever instituted. But, since he's a fucking asshole who is apparently comfortable with lying to people to make the current system look worse and by extension make his own plan look better, he overinflates the family's current tax bill. The interview continues...
Cain: Now, with 9-9-9, they're going to pay that 9% personal, that
9% tax on income, so that's only $4,500. You still have $5,500 left
over to apply to the sales tax piece.
Bullshit! Bull. Shit.
In order to get to $10,000 under the current system, you have to, in addition to ignoring the child tax credit, include the employer's Social Security/Medicare contribution, which is almost $4,000/year in addition to the $50,000 salary. 9-9-9, while it eliminates these contributions, also no longer allows businesses to deduct wages/salaries from their taxable income. So companies will have to pay a 9% tax on the money they want to pay their employees. Essentially, 9-9-9 replaces the current 7.65% employer payroll tax with a 9% employer payroll tax.
So, since we've established in the $10,000 number that we're gonna count employer contributions, and we don't want to compare apples and oranges, you have to include ~$4,900 in payroll taxes, in addition to the $4,500 in income taxes that Cain mentions. So you only have $600 to apply to the sales tax piece, not $5,500 as the fucking asshole claims. And that assumes you buy the $10,000 number, which itself is bullshit. Paying $600 in sales taxes assumes less than $7,000 in spending annually. That's less than what a household with that income would pay just for transportation, according to the Consumer Expenditure Survey.
Extra taxes for working families while The Rich get a tax cut that's literally off the chart. Several screens worth of off the chart. What an asshole...
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Fun with Math, or Herman Cain is a Fucking Asshole, Part 1
While there have been a number of analyses of the tax implications of Herman Cain's 9-9-9 Plan, I haven't seen one that breaks things down enough for the layperson to understand exactly what the implications will be for an average American family. So here's my humble attempt to fill that gap; it's long but I think it's pretty easy to follow. If you don't feel like working through it, a typical family of four would pay just under $3,000 more in taxes under Cain's plan, while the rich would pay lower rates on income and zero taxes on capital gains and inheritances. Cain covers this up by flat-out lying about how much an average family pays in taxes. We'll address the lying and the effects on the rich in part 2.
-Let's consider a family of four making $50,000 a year, which is pretty close to the median household income.
-Their employer must pay 6.2% of that amount in Social Security taxes and 1.45% in Medicare taxes (source), meaning that their employer really spends $53,825 to employ that person.
-Of that $50,000, the family must also pay 6.2% toward Social Security and 1.45% toward Medicare, dropping their total to $46,175.
-They must also pay income taxes. This first involves figuring out their taxable income, which depends on several factors:
Total Gross Income: $50,000
Standard Deduction in 2010 for a married couple is $11,400
So their taxable income is now $38,600
They also can claim a Personal Exemption of $3,650 per family member. $3,650 x 4 = $14,600
This drops their taxable income to $24,000
For couples filing jointly, the tax tables (massive .pdf, relevant bit on page 77) work out to a total liability of $2,766
But the family of four would get two $1,000 child credits, dropping their bill to $766
-So their take-home after payroll taxes, $46,175, minus $766 in income taxes, makes their total post-tax income $45,409.
-Their total tax bill is $4,591
-If you want to count the employer's portion of payroll taxes, which I think is totally legitimate and indeed preferred, as if there were no taxes the employer would be happy to give that cash to the family, their bill is $8,416
As shown in Table 10c of this pdf, the actual tax rate under the 9-9-9 plan would actually be 9.1%. 9's more catchy, but we'll do the calculations with the actual number of 9.1%.
Now, under Cain's plan, let's assume that same employer still wants to spend a total $53,825 to employ the employee. What will be the family's total after-tax income under Cain's plan?
-Payroll taxes go away under 9-9-9. But, employee wages/salaries, which are currently tax-deductible, are no longer so under Cain's plan. This means that the employer has to pay taxes equal to 9% of your wages before they can give the rest to you. So 0.091 x $53,825 = $4,898 is how much they pay in taxes before they give you your salary.
-The family's gross pay is thus $53,825-$4,898 = $48,927
-While Cain hasn't discussed it on the campaign trail, his calculations (.pdf, Table 6) allow for a deduction equal to the poverty rate. For our family of 4, this means they can claim a deduction of $15,006
-Their total taxable income is therefore $48,927 - $15,006 = $33,921
-Paying 9.1% of that in income taxes takes out $3,087
-Their total take-home, after corporate and income taxes but before sales taxes, is $48,927-$3087 = $45,840
-Based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditures Survey, a household with that after-tax income would be expected to spend about $41,000 each year.
-With the proposed sales tax, our family would have to pay a 9.1% sales tax on purchases. This would mean an additional $3,420 in taxes ($37,580 in spending plus 9.1% of that amount equals $41,000)
Got all that? Great, we're almost to the end!
Total tax bill under 9-9-9 = $3,087 (income tax) + $3,420 (sales tax) = $6,507
Including the employer's portion = $6,507 + $4,898 = $11,405
Currently, the family would pay $4,591 in federal taxes. Under 9-9-9, it goes up to $6,507, for an increase of $1,916. Counting the employer's contribution, which I think is really the more valid comparison, the family's tax bill increases from $8,416 to $11,405, an increase of $2,989.
For families who currently make less than $50,000, the change is proportionally worse, as they pay an even lower rate under current law, thanks to other deductions and credits like the Earned Income Tax Credit, all of which go away under 9-9-9.
As Cain points out, the plan is intended to be revenue-neutral (i.e., raises the same amount of taxes in total as the current system). So, if the average family and poorer families are paying more, that means the rich will pay less. A lot less. We'll look at just how much less in Part 2.
See what I mean about Cain being a fucking asshole?
-Let's consider a family of four making $50,000 a year, which is pretty close to the median household income.
-Their employer must pay 6.2% of that amount in Social Security taxes and 1.45% in Medicare taxes (source), meaning that their employer really spends $53,825 to employ that person.
-Of that $50,000, the family must also pay 6.2% toward Social Security and 1.45% toward Medicare, dropping their total to $46,175.
-They must also pay income taxes. This first involves figuring out their taxable income, which depends on several factors:
Total Gross Income: $50,000
Standard Deduction in 2010 for a married couple is $11,400
So their taxable income is now $38,600
They also can claim a Personal Exemption of $3,650 per family member. $3,650 x 4 = $14,600
This drops their taxable income to $24,000
For couples filing jointly, the tax tables (massive .pdf, relevant bit on page 77) work out to a total liability of $2,766
But the family of four would get two $1,000 child credits, dropping their bill to $766
-So their take-home after payroll taxes, $46,175, minus $766 in income taxes, makes their total post-tax income $45,409.
-Their total tax bill is $4,591
-If you want to count the employer's portion of payroll taxes, which I think is totally legitimate and indeed preferred, as if there were no taxes the employer would be happy to give that cash to the family, their bill is $8,416
As shown in Table 10c of this pdf, the actual tax rate under the 9-9-9 plan would actually be 9.1%. 9's more catchy, but we'll do the calculations with the actual number of 9.1%.
Now, under Cain's plan, let's assume that same employer still wants to spend a total $53,825 to employ the employee. What will be the family's total after-tax income under Cain's plan?
-Payroll taxes go away under 9-9-9. But, employee wages/salaries, which are currently tax-deductible, are no longer so under Cain's plan. This means that the employer has to pay taxes equal to 9% of your wages before they can give the rest to you. So 0.091 x $53,825 = $4,898 is how much they pay in taxes before they give you your salary.
-The family's gross pay is thus $53,825-$4,898 = $48,927
-While Cain hasn't discussed it on the campaign trail, his calculations (.pdf, Table 6) allow for a deduction equal to the poverty rate. For our family of 4, this means they can claim a deduction of $15,006
-Their total taxable income is therefore $48,927 - $15,006 = $33,921
-Paying 9.1% of that in income taxes takes out $3,087
-Their total take-home, after corporate and income taxes but before sales taxes, is $48,927-$3087 = $45,840
-Based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditures Survey, a household with that after-tax income would be expected to spend about $41,000 each year.
-With the proposed sales tax, our family would have to pay a 9.1% sales tax on purchases. This would mean an additional $3,420 in taxes ($37,580 in spending plus 9.1% of that amount equals $41,000)
Got all that? Great, we're almost to the end!
Total tax bill under 9-9-9 = $3,087 (income tax) + $3,420 (sales tax) = $6,507
Including the employer's portion = $6,507 + $4,898 = $11,405
Currently, the family would pay $4,591 in federal taxes. Under 9-9-9, it goes up to $6,507, for an increase of $1,916. Counting the employer's contribution, which I think is really the more valid comparison, the family's tax bill increases from $8,416 to $11,405, an increase of $2,989.
For families who currently make less than $50,000, the change is proportionally worse, as they pay an even lower rate under current law, thanks to other deductions and credits like the Earned Income Tax Credit, all of which go away under 9-9-9.
As Cain points out, the plan is intended to be revenue-neutral (i.e., raises the same amount of taxes in total as the current system). So, if the average family and poorer families are paying more, that means the rich will pay less. A lot less. We'll look at just how much less in Part 2.
See what I mean about Cain being a fucking asshole?
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
The GOP candidates, Part 6: Herman Cain
First, some news: looks like Chris Christie is going to stay out; he's holding a press conference at 1pm today, if the rumors are to be believed. Mitt Romney's a very happy man.
The other big news this morning is an ABC/Washington Post national Republican poll which confirms the findings of the previous poll, by Fox. The relevant bits are:
-Rick Perry's taken a big hit, losing over a third of his support, dropping from 28% to 17-19%.
-Despite the wide fluctiations in the support of Perry and others, Romney continues to chug along in the low to mid twenties, lending further support to our recent discussion of his position. He has now passed Perry in the polls, according to the rolling average of polls compiled by realclearpolitics.com
-Herman Cain is the new flavor of the month, picking up just about all the voters Perry lost. He is tied with Perry in 2nd place in hte new poll.
Cain's strength means it's time to revisit his candidacy. His shortcomings in foreign policy were discussed previously. As a successful businessman and former chairman of the board of directors of the Kansas City Fed, he has significant and politically-attractive economics/business experience. He also has mastered stating his positions with an upbeat tone that stands out at debates.
His main policy proposal is his 9-9-9 plan, which would scrap all federal taxes and replace them with a 9% flat corporate tax, a 9% flat income tax, and a 9% national sales tax. Cain has not released, so far as I'm aware, a detailed analysis of his plan. Here's an analysis that shows, as one might expect with a flat tax structure, that the taxes for the poor would go way up and the taxes for the rich would go way down. By eliminating capital gains taxes, an estimated 23,000 millionaires would pay no taxes on their income at all. In total, the plan would bring in roughly $300 billion less than the current plan, which would require more debt.
But, Herman Cain is not, at least at this point, a serious or viable candidate for President. On a superficial level, he appears to be more interested in building his name and selling books than winning the nomination. His list of upcoming events includes nothing in Iowa and New Hampshire, instead holding events in later-voting states like Texas, Virginia, Ohio and Arizona. He's taking 2 weeks away from campaigning to sell his book. He also has very little campaign infrastructure in place (pollsters, Iowa caucus captains, etc.), though with the increased attention/donations, he might be able to build a real campaign.
More generally, his complete lack of experience in government will be a damning liability. This past weekend, he appeared on Fox News Sunday. He was asked whether, by adding a new kind of tax (federal sales tax), would he make it easier for the government to tax more. He said "In the legislation that I am going to ask Congress to send me, I want a two-thirds vote required by the Senate in order for them to change it. That will impede cavalierly raising it." The problem is that the legislation would be clearly unconstitutional. One piece of legislation cannot bind another. Cain and his advisors appear to be unaware of this fact.
Cain also has practiced the Republican pastime of lying about health care reform. In a recent debate, he claimed that he would not have survived cancer a few years back had Obamacare been in place. He stated that his care would have required a federal bureaucrat's approval. This claim was determined by Politifact to be "False".
Herman Cain, while not a serious candidate, is attracting significant conservative anti-Romney support. He will have to decide whether he wants to profit from this support by selling books (the Huckabee route) or actually try to be elected President. Given his significant weaknesses as a candidate and complete lack of government experience, he might be better off to try the former.
The other big news this morning is an ABC/Washington Post national Republican poll which confirms the findings of the previous poll, by Fox. The relevant bits are:
-Rick Perry's taken a big hit, losing over a third of his support, dropping from 28% to 17-19%.
-Despite the wide fluctiations in the support of Perry and others, Romney continues to chug along in the low to mid twenties, lending further support to our recent discussion of his position. He has now passed Perry in the polls, according to the rolling average of polls compiled by realclearpolitics.com
-Herman Cain is the new flavor of the month, picking up just about all the voters Perry lost. He is tied with Perry in 2nd place in hte new poll.
Cain's strength means it's time to revisit his candidacy. His shortcomings in foreign policy were discussed previously. As a successful businessman and former chairman of the board of directors of the Kansas City Fed, he has significant and politically-attractive economics/business experience. He also has mastered stating his positions with an upbeat tone that stands out at debates.
His main policy proposal is his 9-9-9 plan, which would scrap all federal taxes and replace them with a 9% flat corporate tax, a 9% flat income tax, and a 9% national sales tax. Cain has not released, so far as I'm aware, a detailed analysis of his plan. Here's an analysis that shows, as one might expect with a flat tax structure, that the taxes for the poor would go way up and the taxes for the rich would go way down. By eliminating capital gains taxes, an estimated 23,000 millionaires would pay no taxes on their income at all. In total, the plan would bring in roughly $300 billion less than the current plan, which would require more debt.
But, Herman Cain is not, at least at this point, a serious or viable candidate for President. On a superficial level, he appears to be more interested in building his name and selling books than winning the nomination. His list of upcoming events includes nothing in Iowa and New Hampshire, instead holding events in later-voting states like Texas, Virginia, Ohio and Arizona. He's taking 2 weeks away from campaigning to sell his book. He also has very little campaign infrastructure in place (pollsters, Iowa caucus captains, etc.), though with the increased attention/donations, he might be able to build a real campaign.
More generally, his complete lack of experience in government will be a damning liability. This past weekend, he appeared on Fox News Sunday. He was asked whether, by adding a new kind of tax (federal sales tax), would he make it easier for the government to tax more. He said "In the legislation that I am going to ask Congress to send me, I want a two-thirds vote required by the Senate in order for them to change it. That will impede cavalierly raising it." The problem is that the legislation would be clearly unconstitutional. One piece of legislation cannot bind another. Cain and his advisors appear to be unaware of this fact.
Cain also has practiced the Republican pastime of lying about health care reform. In a recent debate, he claimed that he would not have survived cancer a few years back had Obamacare been in place. He stated that his care would have required a federal bureaucrat's approval. This claim was determined by Politifact to be "False".
Herman Cain, while not a serious candidate, is attracting significant conservative anti-Romney support. He will have to decide whether he wants to profit from this support by selling books (the Huckabee route) or actually try to be elected President. Given his significant weaknesses as a candidate and complete lack of government experience, he might be better off to try the former.
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