Just thought y'all should know that Newt Gingrich says we'd have a permanent base on the moon by the end of a second Gingrich term.
This is a clear example of why a Newt Gingrich nomination doesn't scare me in the least. It's a long way to November, and Newt is utterly incapable of not saying a bunch of stupid shit between now and then.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Romney's big fumble
It's stunning how bad this answer is for Romney. He says, directly:
“I’m not suggesting these people are doing that but I know that Democrats will go after me on that basis and that’s why I want to release these things all at the same time."
Well, that's nice. Your tax return is:
1. Something Democrats will attack you on; and,
2. Something which, due to the damage it may cause you, something which must be handled in a certain way; and
3. Something you won't tell us what is until April, when the nomination will be wrapped up.
Huh, that's interesting. I think I'd have to insist, were I a Republican voter, that you go ahead and tell me right fucking now. It's not like you don't have the records already. It's just a matter of getting them out of a file and slapping them on the desk of an AP reporter or whatever.
Catastrophically bad day for Romney today.
“I’m not suggesting these people are doing that but I know that Democrats will go after me on that basis and that’s why I want to release these things all at the same time."
Well, that's nice. Your tax return is:
1. Something Democrats will attack you on; and,
2. Something which, due to the damage it may cause you, something which must be handled in a certain way; and
3. Something you won't tell us what is until April, when the nomination will be wrapped up.
Huh, that's interesting. I think I'd have to insist, were I a Republican voter, that you go ahead and tell me right fucking now. It's not like you don't have the records already. It's just a matter of getting them out of a file and slapping them on the desk of an AP reporter or whatever.
Catastrophically bad day for Romney today.
Just throwin' this out there
If:
1. Republican voters have proven in recent years that they'll vote for the person who feeds them the most red meat; and,
2. Newt Gingrich is clearly, as evidenced tonight in tremendous fashion, and generally throughout the campaign, the best in the field at feeding the base red meat,
then:
I'm not so sure Romney will be the nominee.
At the very least, it won't be over before Super Tuesday in March.
1. Republican voters have proven in recent years that they'll vote for the person who feeds them the most red meat; and,
2. Newt Gingrich is clearly, as evidenced tonight in tremendous fashion, and generally throughout the campaign, the best in the field at feeding the base red meat,
then:
I'm not so sure Romney will be the nominee.
At the very least, it won't be over before Super Tuesday in March.
Newt's response will win South Carolina, prolong Romney's agony
Newt just got another standing ovation during a debate in the first answer tonight, on a question about the allegation by his 2nd wife that he asked her for an "open marriage". He responded by strongly denying the allegation, offering several personal friends who refute the story, and calling the media "despicable" for pushing the story all day today. It turns the story into a win for him, as he has now positioned himself as a victim of the "mainstream media". What are the real proven facts in this story? That Newt cheats on his wives? We knew that. Now he can play the victim card and urge Tea Partiers to vote for him as a slap to the mainstream media.
Brilliant
Brilliant
Perry out, endorses Newt
slow day at work, where the network blocks blog sites, so i'm typing this on my phone, which doesn't seem to get along with the site, so sorry... anyway, rick perry right this minute is dropping out of the race and endorsing newt. although perry has only been polling in the low single digits, the announcement will help newt in his fight against santorum to be the alternative to romney. were newt to come from behind in south carolina (where a new insider advantage poll, the most recent in the state, shows newt with a three point advantage after being down double digits just a few days ago), it's a wide open race. i still think romney would ultimately win, particularly if he won in the next primary in florida, but he would likely be damaged in such a fight, both by attacks from newt as well as having to take ridiculous right wing stances like cutting all funding to pbs, like he did before. huge night tonight, with another south carolina debate as well as the abc interview with newt's ex, where she will reportedly reveal that newt asked her for an open marriage so he could keep fucking his then mistress/now third wife. needless to say, it is a good day for obama
Santorum wins Iowa
Despite initial results showing an 8-vote win for Mitt Romney in Iowa, the official results, which were certified this morning after a careful examination of results from the precincts, shows in fact that Rick Santorum won by 34 votes. So Mitt Romney goes from an unprecedented sweep of Iowa and New Hampshire to a loss to a homophobe and a win in his own backyard.
That being said, he can still just about put the primary to bed by putting up a clear win in South Carolina on Saturday. What will be fascinating to watch over the next 2+ days is how the Iowa result is portrayed in the media and how it affects the results in South Carolina. On the one hand, Romney might get some negative press about the loss and see his numbers take a hit. On the other hand, much of Newt Gingrich's improvements in the polls in the past few days has been the result of conservatives coalescing behind him as the only "non-Romney" with a chance to stop the freight train, but now Santorum can point to an Iowa win as evidence that he too can be the standard bearer.
Once again, it'll be an interesting few days leading up to the voting.
That being said, he can still just about put the primary to bed by putting up a clear win in South Carolina on Saturday. What will be fascinating to watch over the next 2+ days is how the Iowa result is portrayed in the media and how it affects the results in South Carolina. On the one hand, Romney might get some negative press about the loss and see his numbers take a hit. On the other hand, much of Newt Gingrich's improvements in the polls in the past few days has been the result of conservatives coalescing behind him as the only "non-Romney" with a chance to stop the freight train, but now Santorum can point to an Iowa win as evidence that he too can be the standard bearer.
Once again, it'll be an interesting few days leading up to the voting.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Hoping for a Ron Paul win in Iowa
The latest polling in Iowa suggests that Ron Paul is well-positioned to make some noise in the caucuses that are occurring next week. More importantly, the peculiarities of the process in Iowa, it seems likely that Paul will even outperform his improving poll numbers.
In Iowa, voters meet in 1,784 different locations across the state. They actually debate, in these small groups, why those in attendance should vote for their guy. The main advantage that Ron Paul possesses is a devoted following of Atlas Shrugged-wielding libertarians, as demonstrated by his frequently-successful "moneybomb" fundraisers and his legion of supporters on social media sites like Reddit. The ferocity of his support is extremely useful in any contest that is usually low-turnout, such as the caucuses in Iowa. More importantly, many Paul supporters have lived and breathed his ideas and philosophies since his 2008 campaign and are able to . In a setting where debate is allowed immediately prior to caucus-goers casting their votes, Paul-ites will disproportionately swing undecided and weakly-affiliated voters to their guy.
So I'm predicting a Ron Paul victory in Iowa. It will throw the Republican race WIDE open.
Looking at the primary calendar, a Ron Paul win in Iowa would be followed by New Hampshire, where a Mitt Romney victory is almost guaranteed. Next up are primaries in the South, in South Carolina and Florida, where Newt, from neighboring Georgia, has big leads. Then they move out west to Nevada, where Romney will likely win. After that comes Colorado and Arizona, where Newt's polled well. Then a likely Romney win in Michigan, where his father was a popular governor, takes us to Super Tuesday, where anything can happen as 11 states vote.
The only way the Republican race ends quickly is if Mitt Romney runs the table. Based on how the map looks now, it is unlikely that he will do so, ruining his inevitability/electability argument, which is his strongest pull with Republican voters. A Ron Paul win, coupled with early Gingrich wins in states he holds advantages, ensures a long contest.
Which would be great for the President. The longer the primaries go, the longer Obama's eventual opponent will have to cater to the Republican Party base. Unlike the 2008 Democratic contest, where Obama and Hillary Clinton got loads of free press taking not-over-the-top-liberal positions, the Republicans will be forced to take hard-right positions for months. Obama will have millions upon millions of dollars to run a general campaign from the beginning, claiming the center while Republicans fight with each other for the base.
In Iowa, voters meet in 1,784 different locations across the state. They actually debate, in these small groups, why those in attendance should vote for their guy. The main advantage that Ron Paul possesses is a devoted following of Atlas Shrugged-wielding libertarians, as demonstrated by his frequently-successful "moneybomb" fundraisers and his legion of supporters on social media sites like Reddit. The ferocity of his support is extremely useful in any contest that is usually low-turnout, such as the caucuses in Iowa. More importantly, many Paul supporters have lived and breathed his ideas and philosophies since his 2008 campaign and are able to . In a setting where debate is allowed immediately prior to caucus-goers casting their votes, Paul-ites will disproportionately swing undecided and weakly-affiliated voters to their guy.
So I'm predicting a Ron Paul victory in Iowa. It will throw the Republican race WIDE open.
Looking at the primary calendar, a Ron Paul win in Iowa would be followed by New Hampshire, where a Mitt Romney victory is almost guaranteed. Next up are primaries in the South, in South Carolina and Florida, where Newt, from neighboring Georgia, has big leads. Then they move out west to Nevada, where Romney will likely win. After that comes Colorado and Arizona, where Newt's polled well. Then a likely Romney win in Michigan, where his father was a popular governor, takes us to Super Tuesday, where anything can happen as 11 states vote.
The only way the Republican race ends quickly is if Mitt Romney runs the table. Based on how the map looks now, it is unlikely that he will do so, ruining his inevitability/electability argument, which is his strongest pull with Republican voters. A Ron Paul win, coupled with early Gingrich wins in states he holds advantages, ensures a long contest.
Which would be great for the President. The longer the primaries go, the longer Obama's eventual opponent will have to cater to the Republican Party base. Unlike the 2008 Democratic contest, where Obama and Hillary Clinton got loads of free press taking not-over-the-top-liberal positions, the Republicans will be forced to take hard-right positions for months. Obama will have millions upon millions of dollars to run a general campaign from the beginning, claiming the center while Republicans fight with each other for the base.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Iowa up for grabs
(note: apologies for not posting for 2 weeks. Started my new job w/ Akron Children's)
We're now 12 days away from the Iowa caucuses. Here's a summary of all the polling in the state since April. The lead has gone from Romney, to Bachmann, to Perry, back to Romney for a couple days, then to Cain, then Gingrich, now Ron Paul.
The prospect of a Paul win has been scaring the hell out of the Republican establishment, with the Iowa governor advising voters in other states to ignore the result if Paul wins. And he very well might pull it off, given his current lead in the polls and the strength and dedication of his organization. A major factor that's been holding back his campaign is a lack of media coverage. A win in Iowa would change that.
But a win is far from a certainty. As we saw after Newt Gingrich's rise, the knives will come out against whoever the frontrunner is. And, at least among the Republican electorate, Paul is extremely vulnerable to attacks. While voters would respect his economic views, his non-interventionist foreign policy is diametrically opposed to the traditional Republican approach. The other candidates' campaigns, and their super-PAC, will likely spend much of the next 12 days exploiting this vulnerability.
So I don't have a fucking clue who's going to finish anywhere from 1st-6th; pretty sure Huntsman will be 7th, but that's it. I think it's unlikely that Bachmann, Perry or Santorum would win it all, but any of them could finish a strong 2nd. With Romney's big New Hampshire lead, the result there almost certainly won't be "news", so the Iowa winner will likely get an even bigger boost than normal.
While I still think Romney wins the nomination, the shape the race will take is very much up in the air.
We're now 12 days away from the Iowa caucuses. Here's a summary of all the polling in the state since April. The lead has gone from Romney, to Bachmann, to Perry, back to Romney for a couple days, then to Cain, then Gingrich, now Ron Paul.
The prospect of a Paul win has been scaring the hell out of the Republican establishment, with the Iowa governor advising voters in other states to ignore the result if Paul wins. And he very well might pull it off, given his current lead in the polls and the strength and dedication of his organization. A major factor that's been holding back his campaign is a lack of media coverage. A win in Iowa would change that.
But a win is far from a certainty. As we saw after Newt Gingrich's rise, the knives will come out against whoever the frontrunner is. And, at least among the Republican electorate, Paul is extremely vulnerable to attacks. While voters would respect his economic views, his non-interventionist foreign policy is diametrically opposed to the traditional Republican approach. The other candidates' campaigns, and their super-PAC, will likely spend much of the next 12 days exploiting this vulnerability.
So I don't have a fucking clue who's going to finish anywhere from 1st-6th; pretty sure Huntsman will be 7th, but that's it. I think it's unlikely that Bachmann, Perry or Santorum would win it all, but any of them could finish a strong 2nd. With Romney's big New Hampshire lead, the result there almost certainly won't be "news", so the Iowa winner will likely get an even bigger boost than normal.
While I still think Romney wins the nomination, the shape the race will take is very much up in the air.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
"Freezing government spending" not an easy fix
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) is on CNN right now. He advocated a budget plan which would not touch Social Security or Medicare and would not raise taxes. It would accomplish this by freezing federal spending at its current level for 10 years. A similar plan, called the Penny Plan, which would actually reduce spending by 1% each year for the next six, has been proposed by Rep. Connie Mack (R-FL) and supported by Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY).
Sounds easy, right? Just keep things where they are (or cut a penny), and presto, it's all fixed! No sweat.
This might indeed be a relatively easy, were the United States demographically-stable. Unfortunately, ours is an aging population. In the midst of either DeMint's or Mack's plan, millions of Baby Boomers will retire, further swelling the Medicare and Social Security rolls and of course leading to a huge increase in government spending. Were one of these "freeze" plans in place, there would have to be dramatic cuts in discretionary spending to stay under the caps these Republicans would impose.
Rep. Mack and Sen. DeMint are of course well within their rights to present these cuts. But it is dishonest to present these cuts as easy and painless.
As discussed in my very first post of this cycle, most voters are woefully ignorant about the federal budget. When people don't know anything, it's easy to say "let's just freeze spending" and have voters think "Yeah! The government spends too much already! It would be easy to just not grow for a few years". With our clueless electorate, it just might work.
Sounds easy, right? Just keep things where they are (or cut a penny), and presto, it's all fixed! No sweat.
This might indeed be a relatively easy, were the United States demographically-stable. Unfortunately, ours is an aging population. In the midst of either DeMint's or Mack's plan, millions of Baby Boomers will retire, further swelling the Medicare and Social Security rolls and of course leading to a huge increase in government spending. Were one of these "freeze" plans in place, there would have to be dramatic cuts in discretionary spending to stay under the caps these Republicans would impose.
Rep. Mack and Sen. DeMint are of course well within their rights to present these cuts. But it is dishonest to present these cuts as easy and painless.
As discussed in my very first post of this cycle, most voters are woefully ignorant about the federal budget. When people don't know anything, it's easy to say "let's just freeze spending" and have voters think "Yeah! The government spends too much already! It would be easy to just not grow for a few years". With our clueless electorate, it just might work.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Cain out; good news for Newt
Herman Cain suspended his campaign today. He said "suspended" so he can continue to raise money, but he's done. He says he will endorse a candidate "in the near future". Based on his recent appearance with Newt Gingrich at a "debate", as well as Newt's current status as frontrunner, makes Newt most likely to pick up a few more percentage points as a result of today's announcement.
He'll also become more likely to beat Romney. Cain being out of the running means the "anti-Romney" vote is split one fewer way, meaning Romney's amazingly-stable 20-25% in the polls less likely to hold up.
He'll also become more likely to beat Romney. Cain being out of the running means the "anti-Romney" vote is split one fewer way, meaning Romney's amazingly-stable 20-25% in the polls less likely to hold up.
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