If you've never seen a presidential poll prior to last night's debate, you'd still be able to tell that Obama was significantly ahead. He was in his prevent defense, willingly giving up some ground to avoid risking a huge loss.
He seemed to be ok with fighting on McCain's ground, especially on taxes early in the debate. McCain pretty resoundingly trounced Obama early on in the debate. Obama was unwilling to give a full-throated defense of taxing the rich, which makes sense if you're just looking to not piss anyone off. Oddly, however, he didn't do much to tie McCain to Bush on taxes, which is about the easiest issue to do so.
Segregation sucked and everything, but McCain, while discussing John Lewis's George Wallace comments, calling it "the worst chapter in American history" was a bit over the top. Were I an African-American, I'd much rather be in the South in 1956 than 1856. But maybe that's just me
I loved McCain's use of the hatchet/scalpel metaphor to explain his budget freeze: "We need both a hatchet and a scalpel." Watching the debate from the hospital, I was picturing the surgeons on the 5th floor getting started in the OR by jamming a hatchet into someone's gut, then using the scalpel to actually get the appendix.
Obama, later in the debate, came back to McCain's "hatchet" spending freeze when discussing aid for special needs children and their families being an example of an area that needs more funding. Great move to try to break through McCain's ridiculous and hollow budget-buster persona.
Twice during this debate season, once tonight and once at the first debate, McCain derided Obama's insistence that new nuclear power plants be safe, labelling him an "environmental extremist". Really? From last night, "Senator Obama will tell you, as the extreme environmentalists do, that it has to be safe." Who knew Obama was such a pussy
If you wanted to identify the exact moment where McCain ruined any last chance he might have had of winning the election, here it is:
Just a stunning slap at the clear majority of Americans who are pro-choice. It's even a slap at those pro-life people who, ya know, don't hate women.
Obama succeeded on the abortion question by, as he had during much of the debate on cultural issues like vouchers and charter schools, reaching for the center. Instead of staking out a bold and somewhat extreme position as McCain did, he basically said "I'm pro-choice, but I'm not 100% sure I'm right".
So, in the end, while McCain was rhetorically the more successful candidate last night, and "won" the debate, it's an empty victory because Obama prevented a knockout. It would take a huge change, and the only one that seems at all realistic is another terrorist attack on US soil, for McCain to have an chance.
Showing posts with label Debates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Debates. Show all posts
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Town-Hall Debate Reaction
Down about six points, which is a heck of a lot in Presidential politics, McCain needed to have, if not a devastating victory, at least a strong performance. I think I can safely say that McCain did not have one moment that will move the polls in his direction one iota. What was new were an expensive new idea (buying and renegotiating mortgages) and a lame attack (projector earmark). That's not going to move him up at all.
The highlight of the night for me was Obama's answer on health care. Through a personal story about his dying mother, he demonstrated the monstrous nature of our health care system. Insurance companies have a profit motivation to deny care to people. By making it harder for insurers to deny coverage, Obama's plan will be a huge help to costs.
Obama once again succeeded in looking more presidential. McCain's repeated lame jokes, refusal to answer the question on his priorities as President, and (while it shouldn't matter but it does) shuffling gait on stage weren't exactly distinguished. And I think he also did a better job of reaching toward the center on taxes, health care and energy.
McCain needs a Torn ACL Moment from Obama to have any chance. McCain, while attacking Obama's credibility in potentially effective but predictable and worn-out ways, refused to attack him on Ayers, or anything else that might somehow save him. If he's not going to attack Obama, and if Obama has nothing Thomas Eagleton-level in his past, this thing is over.
ADDENDUM: Watching a discussion on MSNBC with a focus group of undecided voters. Why do we give one shit what these imbeciles think about this election?
ADDENDUM II: OK, that was a little harsh. It's possible that people are undecided because they have been busy with other things and haven't been paying attention yet but are capable of having intelligent reactions to tonight's debate. These are not who they got for this particular focus group, however.
ADDENDUM III: Per fivethirtyeight.com, apparently "cool hand at the tiller", a phrase McCain used twice, when typed into Google results in exactly 2 responses. So not only did he use a ridiculous, non-appealing (cuz only rich old people who own boats know what a tiller is) line, he completely made it up out of the Ether.
ADDENDUM IV: All of these addenda are after I've started reading other people's debate responses.
ADDENDUM V: Brokaw definitely took more control of the evening than he should have. Clearly he read my preview post and decided to abandon the pretense of a town hall.
ADDENDUM VI: A bit more about the "Bomb, Bomb Iran" song. Obama talks about how he is qualified to deal with foreign crises or whatever, and McCain jumps in with some lame line or another. The conflict and overtalking gets the viewer's attention. So, then, Obama hammers him, saying "You're the one who sang "Bomb, Bomb Iran". Just excellent timing, and his strongest attack of the night.
VII: Apparently in his stump speech recently, McCain sets up a parallel between himself and Obama, referring to himself as "this Senator" and Obama as "that". It came off as very awkward and condescending when Obama referred to Obama as "that one" without setting up the parallel. This is not the first time that McCain made this mistake in a debate. In the first debate, when discussing earmarks, he said at the end of his response "I will make them famous". Anyone who's heard McCain talk about earmarks prior to that debate knew what he meant, that he would find congressmen who push for ridiculous earmarks, tell us their names and make them famous. But without the set-up, it comes off as non-sensical. Tonight, he did the same.
VIII: Excellent point by Rachel Maddow: It makes McCain look weak to have his entire campaign focused on attacking Obama on Ayers for the past several days and forseeable future and then not have the guts to do it to his face.
The highlight of the night for me was Obama's answer on health care. Through a personal story about his dying mother, he demonstrated the monstrous nature of our health care system. Insurance companies have a profit motivation to deny care to people. By making it harder for insurers to deny coverage, Obama's plan will be a huge help to costs.
Obama once again succeeded in looking more presidential. McCain's repeated lame jokes, refusal to answer the question on his priorities as President, and (while it shouldn't matter but it does) shuffling gait on stage weren't exactly distinguished. And I think he also did a better job of reaching toward the center on taxes, health care and energy.
McCain needs a Torn ACL Moment from Obama to have any chance. McCain, while attacking Obama's credibility in potentially effective but predictable and worn-out ways, refused to attack him on Ayers, or anything else that might somehow save him. If he's not going to attack Obama, and if Obama has nothing Thomas Eagleton-level in his past, this thing is over.
ADDENDUM: Watching a discussion on MSNBC with a focus group of undecided voters. Why do we give one shit what these imbeciles think about this election?
ADDENDUM II: OK, that was a little harsh. It's possible that people are undecided because they have been busy with other things and haven't been paying attention yet but are capable of having intelligent reactions to tonight's debate. These are not who they got for this particular focus group, however.
ADDENDUM III: Per fivethirtyeight.com, apparently "cool hand at the tiller", a phrase McCain used twice, when typed into Google results in exactly 2 responses. So not only did he use a ridiculous, non-appealing (cuz only rich old people who own boats know what a tiller is) line, he completely made it up out of the Ether.
ADDENDUM IV: All of these addenda are after I've started reading other people's debate responses.
ADDENDUM V: Brokaw definitely took more control of the evening than he should have. Clearly he read my preview post and decided to abandon the pretense of a town hall.
ADDENDUM VI: A bit more about the "Bomb, Bomb Iran" song. Obama talks about how he is qualified to deal with foreign crises or whatever, and McCain jumps in with some lame line or another. The conflict and overtalking gets the viewer's attention. So, then, Obama hammers him, saying "You're the one who sang "Bomb, Bomb Iran". Just excellent timing, and his strongest attack of the night.
VII: Apparently in his stump speech recently, McCain sets up a parallel between himself and Obama, referring to himself as "this Senator" and Obama as "that". It came off as very awkward and condescending when Obama referred to Obama as "that one" without setting up the parallel. This is not the first time that McCain made this mistake in a debate. In the first debate, when discussing earmarks, he said at the end of his response "I will make them famous". Anyone who's heard McCain talk about earmarks prior to that debate knew what he meant, that he would find congressmen who push for ridiculous earmarks, tell us their names and make them famous. But without the set-up, it comes off as non-sensical. Tonight, he did the same.
VIII: Excellent point by Rachel Maddow: It makes McCain look weak to have his entire campaign focused on attacking Obama on Ayers for the past several days and forseeable future and then not have the guts to do it to his face.
Presidential Liveblog 2: The Revenge
9:00 We are live from the Doctor's Office in The 'Burgh. Will McCain land an uppercut, or will he be penalized for a low blow. My money's on B. Let's watch!
9:02 If you're Tom Brokaw, don't you kind of feel like you wouldn't be here right now if Russert hadn't died?
9:03 With tens of thousands of questions culled into the questions for tonight's debate, Brokaw, the culler, has just as much influence over this debate as if he'd been answering the question himself. If he wants to ask a question on Social Security, he's got hundreds to choose from and can pick one closest to what he would ask. With so many options, it'll be pretty darn close. Why bother with the charade of "voters" asking him questions?
9:05 I actually like Brokaw, despite the blog being entirely focused on him. Obama's being boring.
9:06 btw, if no one's following along live, I'm just gonna post all my comments at the end (after these, of course). If you are reading live, make a comment, or e-mail me.
9:07 It's a fine, if somewhat expensive, idea to buy up bad mortgages and renegotiate them. But where was that idea before? He didn't have time to push this idea before the bailout passed even with all the time he saved by "suspending" his campaign.
9:08 First lame joke of the night. "Not you, Tom" by McCain in response to his question about McCain's future Treasury Secretary.
9:09 McCain wants to put the founder of EBay in charge of the Treasury?!? I mean, EBay's a great company and everything, but that's not what Treasury is about. You need a banker/investor.
9:11 An undecided voter who's black?!? He must be RIDICULOUSLY conservative!
9:12 Croneys of Obama from Fannie Mae? You mean the black guy who dared talk to the campaign once, and the guy who ran Obama's VP committee for about 2 seconds? Nice.
9:13 That number that shows Obama getting more from Fannie and Freddie than all congressmen but one is ridiculously misleading. When you consider it as a proportion of the huge amount of money he's brought in compared to any other congressman, the result is that Obama has not received a disproportionate sum from these companies, but just so much money from everyone. He got, proportionally compared to McCain, about as much money from Fannie and Freddie as he got from the U.S. Armed Forces serving abroad.
9:14 Obama's counterpunching already, talking about McCain's dereregulator past. Good tactic to use a fairly impersonal, issues-based counterattack to McCain's silly allegations.
9:15 Ow, and he takes it too far by talking about Rick Davis' lobbying firm working for Freddie. Risky move.
9:17 Apparently buying up home loans is McCain's big idea to win the debate. He wants to spend hundreds of billions more than we already did on the bailout.
9:18 Oh, so now we're fighting over who signed what letter to the financial powers-that-be? That's constructive!
9:19 It really is an indictment of Republican conservatism when you look at what happened to the deficit under Reagan and W. Just awful, and we're not really discussing it.
9:20 Savings from Iraq give Obama a fabulous defense against the "big spender" label because he can give the response that, in total, he's cutting spending.
9:22 McCain's telling us to take the word of conservative groups like the American Taxpayers Union. Nice objective source...
9:23 McCain's getting aggressive here, talking about Obama's votes on spending. I just wonder how well those punches are going to land, though.
9:24 Anyone else notice how slow McCain walked across the stage there?
9:24 Hey! "My friends!" Take a drink!
9:25 Can we please stop calling "clean coal" an alternative fuel, Senator McCain?
9:28 Obama's being boring and McCain's being blandly aggressive.
9:29 I guess the planetarium's projector Obama had the government put up the cash for is McCain's other big idea. God forbid the federal government spend money on educating its citizens.
9:31 Wow, who had Obama in the "first to bring up 9/11" office pool?
9:32 Incentivizing conservation really is a winning strategy, I think, and I'm glad Obama's going for it, talking about subsidies for home insulation, energy efficient vehicles, and such. Liberals like that you're spending money and helping the environment, conservatives like that the market is still involved. Tax cuts and incentives for energy companies are great and everything, but
9:35 The hatchet/scalpel analogy for their approaches to the economy is a powerful one, emphasizing that Obama can still "help people who need it."
9:35 Didn't Clinton raise taxes in an economic downtime? Does McCain really want to compare Obama to Clinton on economics?
9:36 Really fake and rehearsed "I've got news for you, Senator Obama. It's bad" is, itself, bad. It's buried in the middle of a tonally much different response.
9:38 Barack, don't emphasize the "Straight Talk Express" thing. Memories of 2000 McCain is the only thing 2008 McCain has left.
9:39 Obama pretty effectively shoehorned his tax answer into a question on health care. Sarah Palin should take a lesson on how it's done.
9:41 Does McCain think he's going to appeal to undecideds with his constant deification of Reagan? Turning out the base is all well and good when your base is bigger than the other guy's, but that's clearly not the case this election.
9:42 Such a lame format, with no follow-ups or questions between the candidates. No wonder it's boring.
9:43 They officially have every undecided black voter asking a question at this debate.
9:44 McCain says that commie Obama thinks nuclear power plants have to be safe!?! What a radical!
9:47 Obama is really going over on time. Heaven forbid that a candidate speak longer than a couple minutes.
9:50 That questions about health care being a commodity is right in Obama's wheelhouse. Let's hope he hits it.
9:51 Hooray, Obama's talking in favor of computerizing health records. Let me tell you, as a professional in the field, that computerized health records would result in HUGE savings in health costs. If McCain said he'd pay to computerize the whole damn system, I'd vote for him.
9:52 Sorry, I might've gotten a little carried away at the end there.
9:53 "Medical errors, as they call them," McCain says. Is that a term he just came up with?
9:54 Another lame attempt at humor, re: hair transplants. A veiled reference to Biden?
9:56 Excellent, EXCELLENT answer by Obama about his mother arguing with insurance companies from a hospital while dying of cancer.
9:58 And he follows it up with factual answers about not mandating care for anyone but kids and that McCain voted against expanding health coverage for kids. And companies being able to shop across state-lines for healthy people to cover.
9:58 Maybe it's because I'm biased, but I think Obama absolutely eviscerated McCain with this health care answer, and McCain could only respond with a lame, lunging attack about a "fine" Obama supposedly wants to impose on companies that don't cover their workers.
10:06 Actually, Senator McCain, if we did what Senator Obama wanted in Iraq, we never would have been there.
10:07 Does McCain really think he's going to convince people by talking about Lebanon in the 1980's?
10:10 Obama is, outside of his health care answer, being really boring. Which is good, actually, when you're trying to avoid a knockout.
10:11 You know why Obama can talk so loudly? Brotha carries a big stick
10:12 The Taliban did not come back in to Afghanistan after we left. The Taliban is who we were supporting while we were there. Ridiculous attempt at a parallel by McCain!
10:14 There's an Obama channel on Dish Network. It need to play "Bomb, Bomb Iran" on a loop for the next 4 weeks.
10:15 "I hate to even go into this." Then don't!
10:16 McCain's repeated statements that he "knows how to get bin Laden" are AWFUL! If he knows, why hasn't he told the Bush Administration?
10:17 I don't think Obama really wants to put more troops into Afghanistan, but it might help, and it keeps him from looking like a wimp.
10:19 McCain's talking about Putin and the KGB. Outside of Rounders, would any voter under 35 have any response to the KGB? And would anyone older still be afraid of them?
10:21 Let me paraphrase for McCain: "We're going to, along with our European allies, put political and economic pressure on Russia to bring them in line, but it's not going to be a new Cold War."
10:22 Gold star for the strategist who had Obama put out a statement in April on Georgia/Russia being unstable.
10:23 Wanna bet they're gonna go longer than yes or no?
10:24 Why would McCain say "maybe"? That has to be the worst possible answer! A regular wordy response like Obama gave is fine, as is saying yes or no. But not maybe! Another lame attempt at humor
10:26 Why oh why are people still attacking Obama on meeting "without preconditions" with world leaders? What undecided voter hadn't heard about this before?
10:29 Meeting with foreign leaders is a topic where Obama can strongly tie McCain to Bush (and every other President, but that's beside the point)
10:30 Obama busts out his one attempt at humor. It was better than any of McCain's, and better timed.
10:30 Obama's ending with biography and humor. The only bar he has to cross at this point to be President is "Is he a radical Muslim domestic terrorist?", and this is an easy way to do it.
10:33 Wow, wars in places most people couldn't find on a map? What a change!
10:34 Saying "I've been serving this country for many, many years" is
10:34 Do most people know what a tiller is? McCain's mentioned it twice!
10:34 What a great ending with McCain standing in front of Brokaw's teleprompter! Is that going to be the one memorable moment from this debate?
10:35 Summary reaction soon. Stay tuned
9:02 If you're Tom Brokaw, don't you kind of feel like you wouldn't be here right now if Russert hadn't died?
9:03 With tens of thousands of questions culled into the questions for tonight's debate, Brokaw, the culler, has just as much influence over this debate as if he'd been answering the question himself. If he wants to ask a question on Social Security, he's got hundreds to choose from and can pick one closest to what he would ask. With so many options, it'll be pretty darn close. Why bother with the charade of "voters" asking him questions?
9:05 I actually like Brokaw, despite the blog being entirely focused on him. Obama's being boring.
9:06 btw, if no one's following along live, I'm just gonna post all my comments at the end (after these, of course). If you are reading live, make a comment, or e-mail me.
9:07 It's a fine, if somewhat expensive, idea to buy up bad mortgages and renegotiate them. But where was that idea before? He didn't have time to push this idea before the bailout passed even with all the time he saved by "suspending" his campaign.
9:08 First lame joke of the night. "Not you, Tom" by McCain in response to his question about McCain's future Treasury Secretary.
9:09 McCain wants to put the founder of EBay in charge of the Treasury?!? I mean, EBay's a great company and everything, but that's not what Treasury is about. You need a banker/investor.
9:11 An undecided voter who's black?!? He must be RIDICULOUSLY conservative!
9:12 Croneys of Obama from Fannie Mae? You mean the black guy who dared talk to the campaign once, and the guy who ran Obama's VP committee for about 2 seconds? Nice.
9:13 That number that shows Obama getting more from Fannie and Freddie than all congressmen but one is ridiculously misleading. When you consider it as a proportion of the huge amount of money he's brought in compared to any other congressman, the result is that Obama has not received a disproportionate sum from these companies, but just so much money from everyone. He got, proportionally compared to McCain, about as much money from Fannie and Freddie as he got from the U.S. Armed Forces serving abroad.
9:14 Obama's counterpunching already, talking about McCain's dereregulator past. Good tactic to use a fairly impersonal, issues-based counterattack to McCain's silly allegations.
9:15 Ow, and he takes it too far by talking about Rick Davis' lobbying firm working for Freddie. Risky move.
9:17 Apparently buying up home loans is McCain's big idea to win the debate. He wants to spend hundreds of billions more than we already did on the bailout.
9:18 Oh, so now we're fighting over who signed what letter to the financial powers-that-be? That's constructive!
9:19 It really is an indictment of Republican conservatism when you look at what happened to the deficit under Reagan and W. Just awful, and we're not really discussing it.
9:20 Savings from Iraq give Obama a fabulous defense against the "big spender" label because he can give the response that, in total, he's cutting spending.
9:22 McCain's telling us to take the word of conservative groups like the American Taxpayers Union. Nice objective source...
9:23 McCain's getting aggressive here, talking about Obama's votes on spending. I just wonder how well those punches are going to land, though.
9:24 Anyone else notice how slow McCain walked across the stage there?
9:24 Hey! "My friends!" Take a drink!
9:25 Can we please stop calling "clean coal" an alternative fuel, Senator McCain?
9:28 Obama's being boring and McCain's being blandly aggressive.
9:29 I guess the planetarium's projector Obama had the government put up the cash for is McCain's other big idea. God forbid the federal government spend money on educating its citizens.
9:31 Wow, who had Obama in the "first to bring up 9/11" office pool?
9:32 Incentivizing conservation really is a winning strategy, I think, and I'm glad Obama's going for it, talking about subsidies for home insulation, energy efficient vehicles, and such. Liberals like that you're spending money and helping the environment, conservatives like that the market is still involved. Tax cuts and incentives for energy companies are great and everything, but
9:35 The hatchet/scalpel analogy for their approaches to the economy is a powerful one, emphasizing that Obama can still "help people who need it."
9:35 Didn't Clinton raise taxes in an economic downtime? Does McCain really want to compare Obama to Clinton on economics?
9:36 Really fake and rehearsed "I've got news for you, Senator Obama. It's bad" is, itself, bad. It's buried in the middle of a tonally much different response.
9:38 Barack, don't emphasize the "Straight Talk Express" thing. Memories of 2000 McCain is the only thing 2008 McCain has left.
9:39 Obama pretty effectively shoehorned his tax answer into a question on health care. Sarah Palin should take a lesson on how it's done.
9:41 Does McCain think he's going to appeal to undecideds with his constant deification of Reagan? Turning out the base is all well and good when your base is bigger than the other guy's, but that's clearly not the case this election.
9:42 Such a lame format, with no follow-ups or questions between the candidates. No wonder it's boring.
9:43 They officially have every undecided black voter asking a question at this debate.
9:44 McCain says that commie Obama thinks nuclear power plants have to be safe!?! What a radical!
9:47 Obama is really going over on time. Heaven forbid that a candidate speak longer than a couple minutes.
9:50 That questions about health care being a commodity is right in Obama's wheelhouse. Let's hope he hits it.
9:51 Hooray, Obama's talking in favor of computerizing health records. Let me tell you, as a professional in the field, that computerized health records would result in HUGE savings in health costs. If McCain said he'd pay to computerize the whole damn system, I'd vote for him.
9:52 Sorry, I might've gotten a little carried away at the end there.
9:53 "Medical errors, as they call them," McCain says. Is that a term he just came up with?
9:54 Another lame attempt at humor, re: hair transplants. A veiled reference to Biden?
9:56 Excellent, EXCELLENT answer by Obama about his mother arguing with insurance companies from a hospital while dying of cancer.
9:58 And he follows it up with factual answers about not mandating care for anyone but kids and that McCain voted against expanding health coverage for kids. And companies being able to shop across state-lines for healthy people to cover.
9:58 Maybe it's because I'm biased, but I think Obama absolutely eviscerated McCain with this health care answer, and McCain could only respond with a lame, lunging attack about a "fine" Obama supposedly wants to impose on companies that don't cover their workers.
10:06 Actually, Senator McCain, if we did what Senator Obama wanted in Iraq, we never would have been there.
10:07 Does McCain really think he's going to convince people by talking about Lebanon in the 1980's?
10:10 Obama is, outside of his health care answer, being really boring. Which is good, actually, when you're trying to avoid a knockout.
10:11 You know why Obama can talk so loudly? Brotha carries a big stick
10:12 The Taliban did not come back in to Afghanistan after we left. The Taliban is who we were supporting while we were there. Ridiculous attempt at a parallel by McCain!
10:14 There's an Obama channel on Dish Network. It need to play "Bomb, Bomb Iran" on a loop for the next 4 weeks.
10:15 "I hate to even go into this." Then don't!
10:16 McCain's repeated statements that he "knows how to get bin Laden" are AWFUL! If he knows, why hasn't he told the Bush Administration?
10:17 I don't think Obama really wants to put more troops into Afghanistan, but it might help, and it keeps him from looking like a wimp.
10:19 McCain's talking about Putin and the KGB. Outside of Rounders, would any voter under 35 have any response to the KGB? And would anyone older still be afraid of them?
10:21 Let me paraphrase for McCain: "We're going to, along with our European allies, put political and economic pressure on Russia to bring them in line, but it's not going to be a new Cold War."
10:22 Gold star for the strategist who had Obama put out a statement in April on Georgia/Russia being unstable.
10:23 Wanna bet they're gonna go longer than yes or no?
10:24 Why would McCain say "maybe"? That has to be the worst possible answer! A regular wordy response like Obama gave is fine, as is saying yes or no. But not maybe! Another lame attempt at humor
10:26 Why oh why are people still attacking Obama on meeting "without preconditions" with world leaders? What undecided voter hadn't heard about this before?
10:29 Meeting with foreign leaders is a topic where Obama can strongly tie McCain to Bush (and every other President, but that's beside the point)
10:30 Obama busts out his one attempt at humor. It was better than any of McCain's, and better timed.
10:30 Obama's ending with biography and humor. The only bar he has to cross at this point to be President is "Is he a radical Muslim domestic terrorist?", and this is an easy way to do it.
10:33 Wow, wars in places most people couldn't find on a map? What a change!
10:34 Saying "I've been serving this country for many, many years" is
10:34 Do most people know what a tiller is? McCain's mentioned it twice!
10:34 What a great ending with McCain standing in front of Brokaw's teleprompter! Is that going to be the one memorable moment from this debate?
10:35 Summary reaction soon. Stay tuned
Sunday, September 28, 2008
The Debate, Two Days Out
With a couple days to reflect back on the debate, as well as the live-blog, some thoughts:
First off, in re-reading the debate post, some of my responses needed to include more about what I was responding to. If I may get a little racial, some of my comments were like an audience at, say, Barbershop: "There you go!", "mhmm", "that's right!". I don't know, is that what our African American brethren say in movie theaters? It's what I imagine they do.
In 1980, before his debates with Jimmy Carter, lots of voters thought Reagan was a right-wing nutjob. Which, of course, he was. But at the debates he managed to convince people that he had sufficient temperament and knowledge for the job. At Friday's debate, Obama met this same threshold. While he probably did, on balance, lose the 2nd half of the debate after the focus switched to foreign policy, he managed to make himself at least on the same level as John McCain. After the debates in 1980, a close race became a bowout after the "new" candidate established himself as qualified and mainstream. I'm cautiously optimistic that we might be heading for a similar scenario now. Obama had a 3 point jump today in the Gallup tracking poll, which is a three-day rolling average of telephone polls. So a 3 point, one-day jump means that Obama's one-day lead over McCain in phone surveys done yesterday (after the debate) was 9 points (!!!) higher than his lead over McCain on Wednesday, the day which fell out of the 3-day average.
I think I might've explained the Gallup thing rather poorly... Take home message, Obama's ahead by much more today than he was before the debate and McCain's pseudo-suspension.
A preview of the VP debate preview: expectations for Sarah Palin are just about as low as they could possibly be, so it wouldn't take much for her to declare "victory".
First off, in re-reading the debate post, some of my responses needed to include more about what I was responding to. If I may get a little racial, some of my comments were like an audience at, say, Barbershop: "There you go!", "mhmm", "that's right!". I don't know, is that what our African American brethren say in movie theaters? It's what I imagine they do.
In 1980, before his debates with Jimmy Carter, lots of voters thought Reagan was a right-wing nutjob. Which, of course, he was. But at the debates he managed to convince people that he had sufficient temperament and knowledge for the job. At Friday's debate, Obama met this same threshold. While he probably did, on balance, lose the 2nd half of the debate after the focus switched to foreign policy, he managed to make himself at least on the same level as John McCain. After the debates in 1980, a close race became a bowout after the "new" candidate established himself as qualified and mainstream. I'm cautiously optimistic that we might be heading for a similar scenario now. Obama had a 3 point jump today in the Gallup tracking poll, which is a three-day rolling average of telephone polls. So a 3 point, one-day jump means that Obama's one-day lead over McCain in phone surveys done yesterday (after the debate) was 9 points (!!!) higher than his lead over McCain on Wednesday, the day which fell out of the 3-day average.
I think I might've explained the Gallup thing rather poorly... Take home message, Obama's ahead by much more today than he was before the debate and McCain's pseudo-suspension.
A preview of the VP debate preview: expectations for Sarah Palin are just about as low as they could possibly be, so it wouldn't take much for her to declare "victory".
Friday, September 26, 2008
Obama Won When It Counted
Both men had their moments. Obama's tone and posture was much better. A lot of it might have to do with McCain's POW injuries, but the visual was very striking, I think, and that matters a lot to the dreaded "low-information voter".
I was really struck by how often McCain called Obama naive, or unprepared, or that he just doesn't get it. It's all well and good (though not particularly illuminating) for McCain to say that. It would have been better to demonstrate it, which I don't think he did.
All in all, I think that because of the difference in body language and tone, as well as managing to reassure voters that he can hold his own against McCain on foreign policy, will give Obama an edge coming out of this. While Obama was never particularly strong at any point, he was solid all the way through and didn't give McCain or SNL anything to parody. I think Darrell Hammond got some material for his McCain impersonation, though.
I was really struck by how often McCain called Obama naive, or unprepared, or that he just doesn't get it. It's all well and good (though not particularly illuminating) for McCain to say that. It would have been better to demonstrate it, which I don't think he did.
All in all, I think that because of the difference in body language and tone, as well as managing to reassure voters that he can hold his own against McCain on foreign policy, will give Obama an edge coming out of this. While Obama was never particularly strong at any point, he was solid all the way through and didn't give McCain or SNL anything to parody. I think Darrell Hammond got some material for his McCain impersonation, though.
Live Debate Post
8:57 To review from the pre-debate post, I'm watching MSNBC (in case I comment on a particular shot angle or something, or a commercial), and also following online at the C-SPAN Debate Hub, and I'll be continuously posting within this post, so keep refreshing!
9:01 Showtime at the anti-Apollo. Doesn't get more anti than a university in Mississippi
9:03 Why the acrobatics to try to shoehorn economics into the foreign policy debate? Just say "ok, economics, go!" It's like "How It's Made" on the Discovery Channel, where they have a little intro into why water heaters are important or whatever instead of just getting on to how it's made. Just go!
9:05 Lucky for Obama to get to go first. He gets to be the first to say all the obvious stuff like opposing CEO pay
9:06 Obama needs to say "fundamentals of the economy" as often as possible
9:06 Why the mention of Kennedy? He's out of the hospital already! It was a minor seizure!
9:07 "Probably, certainly" followed up immediately by a reference to the fact that he's an old man. nice!
9:09 Obama's desperate to not answer if he's in favor of the bill. Of course, I'm sure McCain will do the same.
9:10 Taking McCain's line about a 21st century regulation plan.
9:11 What a long way to go to not say much with the Eisenhower story, John!
9:12 Attaboy! "fundamentals of the economy fundamentals of the economy fundamentals of the economy fundamentals of the economy"
9:13 Lehrer's trying to pick a fight between the candidates
9:14 Barack needs to ask McCain what exactly he wants to cut. Earmarks are in the grand scheme of things a tiny portion of the budget. You could completely get rid of earmarks without making much of an impact on the deficit. What else are you going to cut?
9:15 He's still mentioning the $3 million for bear DNA despite picking a VP who did almost exactly the same thing.
9:16 YES! Obama is in fact talking about the insignificance of earmarks. This stuff ain't so hard. Archinal in 2024! You heard it here first
9:18 People weren't corrupt before the last 5 years?
9:19 This is a fun format for a debate, ain't it? They're going to be cutting each other off before this is over. Hopefully McCain will bang on his lecturn with his shoe.
9:21 But under McCain's plan, 100 million families won't see a dime in income tax cuts
9:23 The vast majority of Americans are hearing about "taxing health care benefits" for the first time right now
9:24 McCain has tried and, by his own admission, failed to control spending.
9:25 The "voting for tax increases for people making $42,000 a year" is based on votes on broad, non-binding budget guidance resolutions. No one's taxes would have been raised by Obama's votes.
9:27 Apparently Obama thinks it's more fun to talk about what we can spend money on instead of what we can't, which is what the question was.
9:30 That was actually a pretty good answer from McCain about cost-plus contracts
9:31 Obama did a good job of stepping on McCain's "hard to reach across the aisle from that far to the left" line, knocking McCain off rhythm.
9:33 Classic illustration of differences between them. McCain wants a "spending freeze", capping all spending with one fell swoop, whereas Obama wants to have a more nuanced approach
9:34 Is it just on my computer that the C-SPAN instant response graph thing isn't working?
9:36 Classic Republican "Harry and Louise" scare tactics on Obama's health care plan
9:37 Obama needs to mention Bush more
9:40 Why exactly does he think Iran doesn't have increased influence even if we "win"?
9:41 "Senator McCain and President Bush..." Keep saying that, Barack!
9:42 Here's a timeline of McCain's statements on tactics and strategy in Iraq to debunk his claim just made that he has opposed Bush's war execution since 2003
9:43 True, the next President won't have to decide if we have to go in Iraq, but he will have to decide if we go to war in Iran, Syria, Russia, Lebanon, etc. So who thought what about the previous decision is kind of relevant, despite McCain's hopes.
9:44 Good job with remembering McCain's quotes re: WMDs and being greeted as liberators
9:47 Nice answer about voting against funds for troops, making it instead about timelines
9:50 Gotta admit McCain's doing better on foreign policy questions than he did earlier
9:53 McCain didn't push the parallel between Afghanistan in the 1980's and Iraq today as hard as I thought he was going to. I expected a more explicit statement that leaving Iraq will risk a Taliban-like government in Iraq eventually...
9:56 Wow, Obama went to the "Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran" thing! The claws are out more than I expected
9:58 Where's McCain going with this history lesson?
9:59 So he's saying "I know how serious war is, but I'll make jokes and sing stupid songs about it anyway"
10:00 It's time for an old-fashioned bracelet-off!
10:02 McCain got more than a little snotty there with the "when I chair a sub-committee..." thing
10:03 Then stop wasting time, Jim!
10:04 "And I don't care how many brown people I have to kill to avoid that Second Holocaust!"
10:07 "But Russia and China are bad! We can't talk with them!"
10:08 Is Obama going to mention the "never negotiate from fear, but never fear to negotiate" line? Let's find out!
10:09 Attacking Obama on meeting with Ahmadinejad et al didn't work for Hillary. Why does McCain think it will work for him?
10:12 McCain is really trying to hammer on the "Obama doesn't understand" line
10:17 Look how many nationalities Obama can name! See, he's qualified!
10:20 I'm sorry, I'm bored by this Russia stuff. There, I said it
10:24 Apparently Obama's bored, too, as he's doing some contortioning to get back to energy
10:25 Obama's looking over at McCain a lot, while McCain's looking at Lehrer or the floor. If you're into reading body language, that's a plus for Obama
10:26 McCain said "How could anyone be against alternative energies?" Come back to this blog this weekend (probably on Sunday, as I'm on call all day tomorrow) for a list of times McCain voted against it.
10:27 McCain's said several times tonight that he thinks we tortured people since 9/11. Does that mean a McCain Department of Justice will pursue criminal charges against members of the Bush Administration?
10:31 Ending our occupation of Iraq is not just Obama's plan. It's the plan of the Iraqi government!
10:33 Heh, Obama was apparently saving the "We're spending $10 billion a month in Iraq when we could use that money to fund X, Y and Z here" argument for near the end, when it's more likely to be remembered. Well done
10:34 Oh, well if McCain thinks Obama is unprepared, I'm convinced. Thanks for clearing that up, John!
10:35 McCain says, basically, "Ready on Day One!". Great! Again, that worked so well for Hillary
10:37 And we're done. Another new post for post-debate thoughts
9:01 Showtime at the anti-Apollo. Doesn't get more anti than a university in Mississippi
9:03 Why the acrobatics to try to shoehorn economics into the foreign policy debate? Just say "ok, economics, go!" It's like "How It's Made" on the Discovery Channel, where they have a little intro into why water heaters are important or whatever instead of just getting on to how it's made. Just go!
9:05 Lucky for Obama to get to go first. He gets to be the first to say all the obvious stuff like opposing CEO pay
9:06 Obama needs to say "fundamentals of the economy" as often as possible
9:06 Why the mention of Kennedy? He's out of the hospital already! It was a minor seizure!
9:07 "Probably, certainly" followed up immediately by a reference to the fact that he's an old man. nice!
9:09 Obama's desperate to not answer if he's in favor of the bill. Of course, I'm sure McCain will do the same.
9:10 Taking McCain's line about a 21st century regulation plan.
9:11 What a long way to go to not say much with the Eisenhower story, John!
9:12 Attaboy! "fundamentals of the economy fundamentals of the economy fundamentals of the economy fundamentals of the economy"
9:13 Lehrer's trying to pick a fight between the candidates
9:14 Barack needs to ask McCain what exactly he wants to cut. Earmarks are in the grand scheme of things a tiny portion of the budget. You could completely get rid of earmarks without making much of an impact on the deficit. What else are you going to cut?
9:15 He's still mentioning the $3 million for bear DNA despite picking a VP who did almost exactly the same thing.
9:16 YES! Obama is in fact talking about the insignificance of earmarks. This stuff ain't so hard. Archinal in 2024! You heard it here first
9:18 People weren't corrupt before the last 5 years?
9:19 This is a fun format for a debate, ain't it? They're going to be cutting each other off before this is over. Hopefully McCain will bang on his lecturn with his shoe.
9:21 But under McCain's plan, 100 million families won't see a dime in income tax cuts
9:23 The vast majority of Americans are hearing about "taxing health care benefits" for the first time right now
9:24 McCain has tried and, by his own admission, failed to control spending.
9:25 The "voting for tax increases for people making $42,000 a year" is based on votes on broad, non-binding budget guidance resolutions. No one's taxes would have been raised by Obama's votes.
9:27 Apparently Obama thinks it's more fun to talk about what we can spend money on instead of what we can't, which is what the question was.
9:30 That was actually a pretty good answer from McCain about cost-plus contracts
9:31 Obama did a good job of stepping on McCain's "hard to reach across the aisle from that far to the left" line, knocking McCain off rhythm.
9:33 Classic illustration of differences between them. McCain wants a "spending freeze", capping all spending with one fell swoop, whereas Obama wants to have a more nuanced approach
9:34 Is it just on my computer that the C-SPAN instant response graph thing isn't working?
9:36 Classic Republican "Harry and Louise" scare tactics on Obama's health care plan
9:37 Obama needs to mention Bush more
9:40 Why exactly does he think Iran doesn't have increased influence even if we "win"?
9:41 "Senator McCain and President Bush..." Keep saying that, Barack!
9:42 Here's a timeline of McCain's statements on tactics and strategy in Iraq to debunk his claim just made that he has opposed Bush's war execution since 2003
9:43 True, the next President won't have to decide if we have to go in Iraq, but he will have to decide if we go to war in Iran, Syria, Russia, Lebanon, etc. So who thought what about the previous decision is kind of relevant, despite McCain's hopes.
9:44 Good job with remembering McCain's quotes re: WMDs and being greeted as liberators
9:47 Nice answer about voting against funds for troops, making it instead about timelines
9:50 Gotta admit McCain's doing better on foreign policy questions than he did earlier
9:53 McCain didn't push the parallel between Afghanistan in the 1980's and Iraq today as hard as I thought he was going to. I expected a more explicit statement that leaving Iraq will risk a Taliban-like government in Iraq eventually...
9:56 Wow, Obama went to the "Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran" thing! The claws are out more than I expected
9:58 Where's McCain going with this history lesson?
9:59 So he's saying "I know how serious war is, but I'll make jokes and sing stupid songs about it anyway"
10:00 It's time for an old-fashioned bracelet-off!
10:02 McCain got more than a little snotty there with the "when I chair a sub-committee..." thing
10:03 Then stop wasting time, Jim!
10:04 "And I don't care how many brown people I have to kill to avoid that Second Holocaust!"
10:07 "But Russia and China are bad! We can't talk with them!"
10:08 Is Obama going to mention the "never negotiate from fear, but never fear to negotiate" line? Let's find out!
10:09 Attacking Obama on meeting with Ahmadinejad et al didn't work for Hillary. Why does McCain think it will work for him?
10:12 McCain is really trying to hammer on the "Obama doesn't understand" line
10:17 Look how many nationalities Obama can name! See, he's qualified!
10:20 I'm sorry, I'm bored by this Russia stuff. There, I said it
10:24 Apparently Obama's bored, too, as he's doing some contortioning to get back to energy
10:25 Obama's looking over at McCain a lot, while McCain's looking at Lehrer or the floor. If you're into reading body language, that's a plus for Obama
10:26 McCain said "How could anyone be against alternative energies?" Come back to this blog this weekend (probably on Sunday, as I'm on call all day tomorrow) for a list of times McCain voted against it.
10:27 McCain's said several times tonight that he thinks we tortured people since 9/11. Does that mean a McCain Department of Justice will pursue criminal charges against members of the Bush Administration?
10:31 Ending our occupation of Iraq is not just Obama's plan. It's the plan of the Iraqi government!
10:33 Heh, Obama was apparently saving the "We're spending $10 billion a month in Iraq when we could use that money to fund X, Y and Z here" argument for near the end, when it's more likely to be remembered. Well done
10:34 Oh, well if McCain thinks Obama is unprepared, I'm convinced. Thanks for clearing that up, John!
10:35 McCain says, basically, "Ready on Day One!". Great! Again, that worked so well for Hillary
10:37 And we're done. Another new post for post-debate thoughts
McCain-Obama 1st Debate! Live Updates!
7:21 We are coming to you live from The Doctor's Office in fabulous Pittsburgh, PA! I honestly have no idea if this is gonna be worth a darn, but join us, won't you?
I think my plan is going to be to continuously update this same post throughout the debate. If it gets too long, I'll start a 2nd post, and so on. Also, I'm going to time stamp each entry manually, unless that gets to be too irritating.
7:23 Actually, I just decided that I'll be starting a new post when the debate actually starts. But, so as to protect the integrity of the live blog/running diary concept, so you don't think I'm modifying previous sub-posts, I'm not going to change the title of this post.
7:24 Some pre-game prep: Politico has a "tale of the tape" comparing the two candidates.
7:30 C-SPAN has what appears to be a useful debate page. It's complete with one of those graphs with lines for each candidate (and the moderator, for some reason) which goes up and down based on how a focus group watching it reacts, by turning knobs or whatever. Might be fun.
7:44 Gonna be watching on MSNBC, hoping for a random Rachel Maddow sighting.
8:15 Even though I'm a liberal, I gotta admit the Oliver Stone W. movie looks ridiculous.
8:18 Tonight's debate will consist of nine (or ten, depending on the source) segments of ten (or nine) minutes each, with moderator Jim Lehrer posing a question to one or the other, who would be given two minutes to respond, and then it's pretty much a free-for-all for the remainder of the segment. Sounds like fun, huh?
8:24 Oops, turns out each candidate gets 2 minutes at the start of each segment, then the last 5 are free-for-all. My bad.
8:44 What the hell is this Bill Murray movie? Apparently this is supposed to be a teaser, but they're running it with every commercial break, so it's just irritating.
8:45 I realize trailer analysis might be treading on Revere High alum Scott Mendelson's turf. Sorry, Scott!
8:52 Interesting thought from fivethirtyeight.com: "There's a meta communication that Obama gives off of being calm and nuanced, that he can explain something in depth. It's reassuring The simpleton 'What do we do with evil, negotiate with it or defeat it? Defeat it!' Q-and-A that McCain is better at than Obama won't fly during this crisis."
8:56 OK, time to switch over to the main debate post, so this one's all done. Catch you on the flip side
I think my plan is going to be to continuously update this same post throughout the debate. If it gets too long, I'll start a 2nd post, and so on. Also, I'm going to time stamp each entry manually, unless that gets to be too irritating.
7:23 Actually, I just decided that I'll be starting a new post when the debate actually starts. But, so as to protect the integrity of the live blog/running diary concept, so you don't think I'm modifying previous sub-posts, I'm not going to change the title of this post.
7:24 Some pre-game prep: Politico has a "tale of the tape" comparing the two candidates.
7:30 C-SPAN has what appears to be a useful debate page. It's complete with one of those graphs with lines for each candidate (and the moderator, for some reason) which goes up and down based on how a focus group watching it reacts, by turning knobs or whatever. Might be fun.
7:44 Gonna be watching on MSNBC, hoping for a random Rachel Maddow sighting.
8:15 Even though I'm a liberal, I gotta admit the Oliver Stone W. movie looks ridiculous.
8:18 Tonight's debate will consist of nine (or ten, depending on the source) segments of ten (or nine) minutes each, with moderator Jim Lehrer posing a question to one or the other, who would be given two minutes to respond, and then it's pretty much a free-for-all for the remainder of the segment. Sounds like fun, huh?
8:24 Oops, turns out each candidate gets 2 minutes at the start of each segment, then the last 5 are free-for-all. My bad.
8:44 What the hell is this Bill Murray movie? Apparently this is supposed to be a teaser, but they're running it with every commercial break, so it's just irritating.
8:45 I realize trailer analysis might be treading on Revere High alum Scott Mendelson's turf. Sorry, Scott!
8:52 Interesting thought from fivethirtyeight.com: "There's a meta communication that Obama gives off of being calm and nuanced, that he can explain something in depth. It's reassuring The simpleton 'What do we do with evil, negotiate with it or defeat it? Defeat it!' Q-and-A that McCain is better at than Obama won't fly during this crisis."
8:56 OK, time to switch over to the main debate post, so this one's all done. Catch you on the flip side
McCain Needs a Knockout
And I'm not talking about Palin.
As glad as I am that McCain has announced that he will in fact attend the debate tonight (which you can follow right here at The Political Doctor), it really does seem to be a complete and utter capitulation from McCain.
From his statement on Wednesday, when he announced he was "suspending" his campaign:
Tune in to The Political Doctor tonight to find out if he does.
As glad as I am that McCain has announced that he will in fact attend the debate tonight (which you can follow right here at The Political Doctor), it really does seem to be a complete and utter capitulation from McCain.
From his statement on Wednesday, when he announced he was "suspending" his campaign:
We must meet as Americans, not as Democrats or Republicans, and we must meet until this crisis is resolved. I am directing my campaign to work with the Obama campaign and the commission on presidential debates to delay Friday night’s debate until we have taken action to address this crisis.Of course, no agreement has been reached (i.e., this crisis is not resolved and the government has taken no action to address this crisis), but McCain announced today that he will, in fact, attend the debate. From his campaign press release today:
He is optimistic that there has been significant progress toward a bipartisan agreement now that there is a framework for all parties to be represented in negotiations, including Representative Blunt as a designated negotiator for House Republicans. The McCain campaign is resuming all activities and the Senator will travel to the debate this afternoon. Following the debate, he will return to Washington to ensure that all voices and interests are represented in the final agreement, especially those of taxpayers and homeowners."I'm trying really, really hard to not get my hopes up too much, but it really seems like McCain's in trouble. He sure could use a good performance tonight to get himself back on track and stop his slide in the polls.
Tune in to The Political Doctor tonight to find out if he does.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Get Ready for a Live-Blog!
I will endeavor to make live posts during the Presidential debate this coming Friday, with instant reactions and analysis from yours truly. It might fail miserably, but it's worth a shot.
So tune in Friday night! The debate starts at 9 Eastern, so I'll probably start at about 8 or so. Be there!
So tune in Friday night! The debate starts at 9 Eastern, so I'll probably start at about 8 or so. Be there!
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