Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Election Day live blog

0748 - Voting has occurred.  I was there within a few minutes of polls opening at 0630, and it took just under an hour.  Long lines.  Neither of the vote counting machines at my precinct were working, so they just had us put the ballots into a locked box to be counted later.  Since I was waiting in line with lots of rich old white folks, I'm pretty sure Ohio's Republican Secretary of State and well-known vote manipulator Jon Husted will make sure my vote is counted.

0751 - FiveThirtyEight gives Romney an 8.4% chance of winning.  This is almost exactly the odds of rolling two six-dice and totaling exactly a 4.

0755 - Races to watch include Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.  Obama's leading in all of 'em but Florida and North Carolina.

Senate races include Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Mexico, Indiana, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Florida.

1250 - Looking at the schedule of poll closings, we should get a pretty good idea early on what kind of night we're in for.  North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Ohio all close by 2000.  If Obama wins North Carolina and/or Florida, turn out the lights, the party's over.  Winning Virginia +/- New Hampshire makes Ohio not matter all that much, as Obama'd probably still get to 270 even without it.

1832 - Drudge's headline:
EXIT POLLS TIGHT
R: NC, FL
O: NH, PA, MI, NV
TOSSUP: OH, VA, CO, IA
Seems like the sort of mixed result that will keep people coming back to Drudge's website all night.

1846 - OK, I kind of expected more action during the day today.  At 7, network coverage starts, so there should be some motion soon.

1 comment:

NWest said...

86.2% "chance" of winning? Silver is awfully specific...

I threw my vote away on Gary Johnson :).