Beware the jobs report

Obama's been doing very well in the polls recently, pushing his odds of winning, according to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, over 75%.  But there's still a long way to go til November, and lots of outside events that might change the outcome.  Between now and then, there are two more job reports due, including one the Friday before Election Day.  If there's bad news in that last report, it could swing the election.  Here's a graph of the last year of jobs growth, which illustrates why Democrats shouldn't count their chickens just yet.