Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Fearless Predictions

On Super Tuesday, as results began pouring in, Senator Obama began winning more than his share of races. In order for Clinton to be able to prevent Obama from declaring victory, they said, she would have to win California. Sure enough, she pulled it off, and Super Tuesday was chalked up as more or less of a draw.

After a string of big losses, the next do-or-die moment for the Clinton campaign was declared (by the Clinton campaign) to be Ohio and Texas. A loss in either would be catastrophic, and a win in both might give her campaign new life. She won both primaries, though she lost the overall delegate count in Texas, muddying the waters even more.

Next up was Pennsylavania. In the days before the primary, a consensus emerged that a double-digit win for Clinton would keep her campaign strong, while a single-digit win in a state so demographically hospitable to Senator Clinton would indicate the beginning of the end. So what happened? Of course, it's a 9.2% win, 54.6 to 45.4, which, thanks to the rounding of each candidates' total, looks like a 10% win. The result fit into an impossibly narrow window where, depending on your persuasion, you could call it a single- or a double-digit win!

Which brings us to the latest win or go home day, North Carolina and Indiana. A win in both for Hillary would raise serious questions about Barack's campaign and ability to beat McCain in the general. A double win for Obama would go a long way toward bringing in the "Party Elders" to push Clinton out of the race. So how can there be any doubt of the outcome?

My predictions? Hillary wins Indiana 53%-46%, Obama wins North Carolina 55%-45%, and this whole thing carries on through Puerto Rico in early June.

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