Wednesday, March 14, 2012

why would newt get out?

coming to you live from sushi 86 in cleveland, so it's an unformatted, uncapitalized post today. sorry. after losing in both mississippi and alabama, which were probably his best shots at winning any more states, there is mounting pressure for newt gingrich to get out of the race. for newt, however, there is no motivation for him to leave. based on his past history, it's reasonable to assume that after the election newt will return to peddling his influence among those in power. over the next several months, those in power will fall in line behind the nominee, and that nominee will almost certainly be mitt romney. it would therefore behoove newt to be on mitt's good side. what does newt have at this point to offer mitt? by staying in the race until romney gets the nomination, newt will continue to drain anti romney votes from santorum. should romney fall short of a majority, newt would likely have accumulated enough delegates, given the system of proportional allocation of delegates (i.e., you don't have to win a state to get a few delegates) to put mitt over the top. we know that newt, being 68 years old, won't be running again, so his standing with the voters doesn't matter. so unless he thinks santorum will be the nominee, newt has no reason to get out, and in fact benefits romney, and therefore himself, by staying in.

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