Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Chilling warning from George Soros

Over the weekend, George Soros, a billionaire investor known for success in the currency market, gave a speech at an economics conference in which he gave Europe 3 months to solve its banking and sovereign debt crises or face the end of the European Union.  The whole thing is definitely worth a read, but the short version is that the political window for a grand solution is closing.  As the economic disaster in Greece continues to unfold, Greeks will become increasingly unlikely to elect a government which will jump through all the hoops the rest of Europe has set up for them in exchange for help paying its debts.  Germany will also become less willing to give that help as their economy, which is heavily dependent on exports sent to other European countries, stagnates due to the worsening markets for its products.  He doesn't give a specific rationale for his 3 month prediction, but the speech is otherwise excellent.

1 comment:

NWest said...

No grand solution is possible so long as there's no Fiscal Union in combination with the Currency Union. Unless the Germans are expected to pay for cradle-to-grave social welfare of Club Med, the Euro experiment will fail.

Greece needs to default. Banks that lent Greece money should go bankrupt, and perhaps will be more cautious when lending to Greece next time.